Chicago, Illinois, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Blake Bell (81) is congratulated by quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) after catching a touchdown pass in the first quarter against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

Patrick Mahomes has gone OVER 2.5 TDs in each of his past four starts in Week 1. That's only part of the reason it's our top prop of the week.

Keenan Allen has at least six catches in seven of his past nine full matchups against the Raiders, whose new scheme plays into hands of Bolts' intermediate weapon.

The goal of our weekly top-prop series is identifying which props are the best to bet using a combination of our data and our football IQ. Straight betting (placing a bet on 1 prop) is the key to long-term success, so we'll give out 4-5 single player props weekly that we like the most on the Sunday slate However, because parlays are also all the rage recently, we'll give out a same-game parlay for those looking to enter that realm.

Typically, we'll have a play of the week, which basically is the bet we're most confident in. We recommend going 1.5u on this bet. The rest of the single bets  recommend 1u or 0.75u (whatever is specified). And for the same-game parlay, because the implied probability of it hitting will likely be below 20%, readers want to place a small unit size on it, something like 0.25 units. All bets will be tracked and updated weekly.

As always, shop around and try to make sure you get the best price possible on all your picks — one of the first steps to becoming a profitable bettor long term.

We're of the belief that the Chiefs offense will be fine this season, even with the loss of Tyreek Hill. Give the best HC-QB combo in the NFL a whole offseason to scheme a new offense to account for no Tyreek, and they’ll be ready for this game.

Firstly, this play is based on the fact that Patrick Mahomes is the greatest Week 1 quarterback in NFL history. When going back to 2006, no quarterback has an higher expected points added (EPA) per play, or completion percentage over expected (CPOE) than Mahomes does. There truly has been no answer for Mahomes in Week 1 in his career, and we don’t see that changing this year. He’s gone over 2.5 passing TDs in each of his four Week 1 starts.

On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals worsened on defense this offseason, losing Chandler Jones, and they’ll likely be relying on JJ Watt, Markus Golden, and Dennis Gardeck to generate pressure versus a pretty good Chiefs offensive line. Arizona recently traded for Trayvon Mullen to improve a pretty weak corner room, but he might not even play Sunday. Add this to Mahomes’ historical Week 1 success, and we think another vintage Week 1 Mahomes performance is imminent.

This is kind of a unique prop, but we have sound reasoning for its selection. First off, the Texans passing offense is going to be bad this year. They have Brandin Cooks — who’s a pretty good receiver — but the rest of the WR room is subpar. Though Davis Mills surprised as a rookie, he’s likely nothing more than an average quarterback at his peak. In seven preseason drives, Mills never completed a pass that went over 34.5 yards. Last season, the Texans ranked 25th in deep pass attempts, dead last in explosive passing plays (15+ yards), and 26th in YAC.

The other reason we like this play is the Colts defense. New coordinator Gus Bradley’s defensive philosophy plays in perfectly to this prop. Playing the Legion of Boom single-high cover 3 scheme is meant to limit the big plays and force teams to hit the flats more often. In fact, in 2021, the Raiders — for whom Bradley was coordinating — ranked 3rd in explosive passes allowed despite playing guys like Trayvon Mullen, Brandon Facyson, and Damon Arnette on the outside. The Colts signed Facyson in the offseason but also have former DPOY Stephon Gilmore — who’s reportedly looked great in camp — and one of the game’s best slot corners in Kenny Moore II. When Bradley plays with a lead, he goes ultra conservative, playing a lot of Cover 3 and prevent defense, and while that does let the offense move the ball down the field easily, it limits the shot plays we’re avoiding with this prop.

For years, Keenan Allen has been one of the most reliable receivers in the NFL. Five straight seasons of 97 receptions or more is tough to repeat from any player. We are backing him in what is projected to be a high-scoring game vs. the Raiders in LA. While there is a lot of juice on this prop, we think he has a very high chance of hitting it. First off, Allen sees a Raiders team against which he’s consistently succeeded. He’s gathered in 6 or more receptions in 7 of their last 9 full matchups. 

Secondly, the Chargers are going to throw the ball a lot — and we mean a lot. They had one of the highest neutral game script passing rates in the league, and with the continuity on the coaching staff, this really shouldn’t change much this season.

Finally, the Raiders new style of defense should play to Allen’s strengths. With DC Patrick Graham, the Raiders are likely to employ more 2-high split safety coverages — which eliminate the deep ball and force the Chargers to win underneath, where Keenan thrives. I could easily see him having the type of game Stefon Diggs did Thursday, when Buffalo’s WR1 torched the Rams early underneath. Defenses are going to be wary of Herbert’s arm this season, meaning guys like Allen and RB Austin Ekeler are going to do plenty of damage underneath.

Shop around and try to get the best price, but we like this bet for a player that has always fared well vs the Falcons. Atlanta allowed 19 rushing TDs last season — No. 26 in the NFL. This offseason, the Falcons lost Foye Oluokun to free agency and their best linebacker, Deion Jones, was placed on IR. Last year, the Saints offense was pretty solid under Jameis Winston, and they looked pretty solid again this preseason, albeit against iffy competition. With how bad the Falcons are projected to be, plus a positive game script for Kamara, we like him to hit pay dirt at least once this game and wouldn’t mind this bet parlayed with Saints ML for a plus-money play.

The Week 1 Sunday slate isn’t great for parlays, as there are only 2 games with a total over 50. But as a man of the people, I’ll share one nonetheless.

• David Njoku over 35.5 receiving yards

• Amari Cooper under 49.5 receiving yards

• Baker Mayfield over 8.5 rushing yards

We like Nick Chubb to cash in on a run inside the 5 at some point this game behind a pretty solid line. Jacoby Brissett likes to target his tight ends at a higher rate than most other quarterbacks do, so I like the Njoku play. We also don’t think Cooper sees much success against a pretty solid Panthers secondary. Finally, we do want to play into the Baker Mayfield narrative and bet his rushing yards, but in addition to the motivation of playing the Browns, he’ll face good deal of pressure from Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney, forcing Mayfield to step up in the pocket and use his legs to his advantage.

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